Today we will have a look at the annual forecasts we made last year.
Later this week I will offer my prognosis for 2012.
You can find our old 2011 forecasts here:
http://fourpillarsfinance.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/prognosis-for-2011/
While most investors experienced 2011 as a very difficult year, it is fair to say that most of our cycles have worked exceptionally well.
Let’s have a look.
Hit:
Our expected pattern for the Nasdaq Index was right on the mark with bottoms in spring and in September.
And the year ended flat to down for most stock markets.
Hit:
Gold and gold stocks did experience a serious correction in 2011.
The gold stocks (XAU) reached their lowest level since 2010 in October.
Hit:
The Euro has been in the news all year. Our prediction was neutral, calling for Euro strength in summer, followed by weakness.
That’s exactly what happened.
From 1.30 vs US$ the Euro rose to the 1.46 area, where it stayed all summer, only to give back all these gains and end the year down at 1.30 again.
So-so:
Oil prices did actually go above $100, satisfying our forecast, but it was also back down to $80 by mid-year and rose up to $100 again by December.
The prediction was not wrong, but could have been better.
Hit:
Most grains and soft commodities did make a downward correction in 2011.
So if you waited to buy you avoided losses.
Miss:
Our prediction for bond prices (interest rates) was wrong.
The US long term interest rates have continued to go down.
So we have four hits and one miss, which always makes for a good year.
It will not be easy to match this, but we will try.
So stay tuned for our new prognosis for 2012.
Happy New Year.
Danny
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This entry was posted on January 5, 2012 at 3:42 pm and is filed under Market Commentary.
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December 2011 – Wrapping up the year.
Posted by Danny on January 5, 2012
Today we will have a look at the annual forecasts we made last year.
Later this week I will offer my prognosis for 2012.
You can find our old 2011 forecasts here:
http://fourpillarsfinance.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/prognosis-for-2011/
While most investors experienced 2011 as a very difficult year, it is fair to say that most of our cycles have worked exceptionally well.
Let’s have a look.
Hit:
Our expected pattern for the Nasdaq Index was right on the mark with bottoms in spring and in September.
And the year ended flat to down for most stock markets.
Hit:
Gold and gold stocks did experience a serious correction in 2011.
The gold stocks (XAU) reached their lowest level since 2010 in October.
Hit:
The Euro has been in the news all year. Our prediction was neutral, calling for Euro strength in summer, followed by weakness.
That’s exactly what happened.
From 1.30 vs US$ the Euro rose to the 1.46 area, where it stayed all summer, only to give back all these gains and end the year down at 1.30 again.
So-so:
Oil prices did actually go above $100, satisfying our forecast, but it was also back down to $80 by mid-year and rose up to $100 again by December.
The prediction was not wrong, but could have been better.
Hit:
Most grains and soft commodities did make a downward correction in 2011.
So if you waited to buy you avoided losses.
Miss:
Our prediction for bond prices (interest rates) was wrong.
The US long term interest rates have continued to go down.
So we have four hits and one miss, which always makes for a good year.
It will not be easy to match this, but we will try.
So stay tuned for our new prognosis for 2012.
Happy New Year.
Danny
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This entry was posted on January 5, 2012 at 3:42 pm and is filed under Market Commentary. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.