Four Pillars Finance

Chinese astrology cycles for market timing

Archive for December, 2009

December09-USdollar

Posted by Danny on December 17, 2009

Current level for Euro/US$:  1.43

Euro-US dollar rate seems to have topped out near the 1.50 level, as we predicted in our newsletter last October (http://www.fourpillars.net/finance/pdf/FPFoct09.pdf)

The steep uptrend that started last February is now clearly broken (see chart).
Going forward the Chinese cycles point to a Euro-US$ bottom in April and in June-July.
Thereafter the Euro is likely to strengthen again for several years.

Here is the prediction chart (click for larger image):

Happy holidays, Danny VdB

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Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

December09 – oil and bonds

Posted by Danny on December 8, 2009

US 20 year Treasury Bonds (TLT)

Current level: 93.4

We are starting to come out of the Wood months bottom period for bonds.
Prices may have bottomed out near 93 on TLT, and we should now see some kind of push upward in the coming months.
A drop below 88 (TLT) would invalidate this scenario, so that’s where you want to keep your stop-loss.
Upward potential is near 100 – 105.

Here is our current prediction chart (click for larger image):

Crude Oil (USO)

current level: 37.5

Oil seems to be moving mostly sidewards, as we predicted a couple of months ago.
The gentle upward trend that started last February is now in danger of being broken to the downside.
My guess is that the oil market may remain pretty lackluster all the way till June – July, our next projected bottom period for Oil.
Wait.

Here is our prediction chart (click for larger image):

Happy trading,  Danny VdB

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

December 09 – stocks

Posted by Danny on December 7, 2009

Nasdaq

Current level: 2194

In our November newsletter we predicted a new attempt to rally higher, and probable failure to break higher.

That’s pretty much what happened, the Nasdaq rallied almost 10%, but again seems to stall at the 2200 level.

The FPF Index for Nasdaq is still positive for December, but off its peak, and next January will offer another last chance to put in a top.

So we may see a brief jump to 2300 and a possible top in January. But I wouldn’t bet on it as a Metal year is coming up quickly and soon the odds will favor a decline into April-May. The risk-reward ratio is not good enough.

Staying out.

Here is our current prediction chart (click for larger image):

Gold Stocks (XAU)

current level: 182

While gold itself has surged to new highs again, the gold stocks stubbornly refuse to join it.

The XAU almost reached 200, still well short of the record it reached almost 2 years ago. And now it has dropped back to 180, which is back to where it was 2 months ago.

This ongoing divergence is not a good omen, and our Chinese cycles call for a bottom in February – March.

So we wait for at least a good correction in this market, and then we will see what next.

Here is our prediction chart (click for larger image):

We will cover oil and bonds in the next couple of days.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

 
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