Four Pillars Finance

Chinese astrology cycles for market timing

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Forecast for 2014

Posted by Danny on January 17, 2014

We just finished our annual forecasts and charts. This is the 13th edition since 2002.

You can download the PDF file here: http://fourpillars.net/finance/pdf/FPF2014.pdf

Or read it right here:

4 Responses to “Forecast for 2014”

  1. mike said

    The 2013 forecast said S&P 1460 or worse it did the opposite soared +30.00% It had big red bear bar drops for may & september the market soared in those months. gasoline gold silver in USA fell so I felt those predictions panned out. In the 2013 forecast it said 2013 & 2014 were important years & would hinge on what 2015 does.

    • Danny said

      Hi Mike,

      When 12 monthly bars were predicted, one will always be able to point to some months that went the other way. But that’s not a very fair way to judge forecasts.
      Looking at the Nasdaq, June and August were down months, February was flat. That means that our prediction graph was wrong for February, May, June and September, and was right for the other 8 months. That’s a better than average year in my book, because we aim for 60% accurate,and it is generally difficult to get much higher than that.
      Our forecast was not for 1460 or worse. Our forecast for year end depended on how deep a correction was seen in August-September. As we said: “if the setback is mild, then we can easily end the year with 10% gains.”
      Clearly the summer setback was very mild, and we ended the year with better than 10% gains.

      As I have been repeating for years, one shouldn’t expect perfection from these forecasts. The cycles we use and the forecasts based on them have about 60% odds of coming true. So, when using these forecasts in actual trading, one can lean in a certain direction based on these cycles and indicators, but also not too strongly because they will be wrong 40% of the time.
      And that’s the entire point of the metaphor of the duck hunter I used at the beginning of the piece. Don’t shoot before the duck can be seen.

      Forecasting the stock market for a year out is like forecasting the weather for next September. The further out, the more chaos enters the picture and the more unreliable the forecast will be.

      Danny

  2. Wasp dudes! Amazing stuff continues the good work.

  3. […] Forecast for 2014We just finished our annual forecasts and charts. This is the 13th edition since 2002. You can download the PDF file here: http://fourpillars.net/finance/pdf/FPF2014.pdf Or read it right here:Filed under: Market Commentary Tagged: 2014 […]

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